Proletarian bonapartism - once again??

[proletarianrevo]

Dear comrades
I was wondering, about the present situation in Latin America.
What do you think about the revolution - is there a possible that proletarian bonapartism could rise once again due to the left reformists. Remember how Castro suddently was forced to "turn to the left" and nationalize the industri, because of the pressure from the US bourgois.

Is this possible at this moment? Or is the working class to strong? After all proletarian bonapartism was a phenomena primarily existing in backward countries.

Well any of you guys done some thinking on this question?

[Marxista]

I could see that happening in Argentina, Ecuador or Bolivia, then to a lesser extent in Venezuela and Peru.  Highly unlikely in Mexico or Brazil.  Colombia is kind of a special case because of the strong leftist guerrillas in the country, it all depends who can win versus the paramilitaries and the colombian soldiers.

[turnoviseous]

Originally posted by proletarianrevo
Dear comrades
I was wondering, about the present situation in Latin America.
What do you think about the revolution - is there a possible that proletarian bonapartism could rise once again due to the left reformists. Remember how Castro suddently was forced to "turn to the left" and nationalize the industri, because of the pressure from the US bourgois.

Is this possible at this moment? Or is the working class to strong? After all proletarian bonapartism was a phenomena primarily existing in backward countries.

Well any of you guys done some thinking on this question?

Dear comrade,

If a revolution is carried out by working masses and genuine workers´ democracy with soviets is set up then it is not highly probable that it would degenerate into bonapartism, since proletariat is quiet strong, and so is productivity of labour in most of the countries, and that would stimulate working class of the whole of Latin America to get on a move.

If a revolution is carried out with some kind of coup (or something similar as you said) then this would probably mean new proletarian bonapartism, but there is another question, how long could it  survive? At same time it would probably set masses down a little.

[emil1848]

Originally posted by Marxista
I could see that happening in Argentina, Ecuador or Bolivia, then to a lesser extent in Venezuela and Peru.  Highly unlikely in Mexico or Brazil.  Colombia is kind of a special case because of the strong leftist guerrillas in the country, it all depends who can win versus the paramilitaries and the colombian soldiers.

Hi Comrades,

I think this is a very interesting question. I quoted your message Marxista as I am interested in how you came to your conclusions! If we all can explain things rather than just type out our conclusions then we will all learn more! I don't mean to bitch or anything! :)

Remember that in countries like Syria, Afghanistan, (and Portugal 74, although it didnt result in a Stalinist regime)) etc, it was not guerrillas, but sections of army officers and civil society that effected the revolutions. These layers could see that capitalism could not deliver the goods and they looked towards the USSR and their model as a way forward.

This is different to say Colombia, where (I am no expert...) but I think the state apparatus is not at all sympathetic to communism!!

Now in Venezuela, we have a situation where things are really hotting up.  Without the existence of the USSR any more and the tremendous strength of the working class who would resent the lack of democracy, I am not sure that a proletarian bonapartist regime of the "classical" type could be formed by sections of the establishment. However, certainly Chavez will be forced further and further to left and move in a Cuba-type direction.

I think I should let redjordi take over this discussion as he is better informed about this than me!

Keep the red flag flying everyone!

emil